“Using a combination of simulations, past experience and expert opinion, the book sets out predictions for how key economic and other variables are likely to develop over the next four decades. Central to the forecasts are the evolution of GDP and population.” Read more on pg.31
Source: The Actuary, June 2014, Author: Eleanor Beamond-Pepler
“Randers’s ideas most closely resemble a World3 scenario in which energy efficiency and renewable energy stave off the worst effects of climate change until after 2050. For the coming few decades, Randers predicts, life on Earth will carry on more or less as before. Wealthy economies will continue to grow, albeit more slowly as investment will need to be diverted to deal with resource constraints and environmental problems, which thereby will leave less capital for creating goods for consumption.” Read more
Source: Global Times, May 15, 2012 by Wang Wenwen
The new book 2052, divides the world into five regions: namely the US; the OECD countries outside the US (EU, Japan, Canada and the rest of the industrialized world); China; Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and 10 other big emerging economies; an finally those at the bottom of the income ladder. A forecast is made for the development of each of the five regions from 2012 to 2052. Over this period the surprising looser will be the US, while China will be the winner. Read more
Source: Scientific American on May 23, 2012 by Madhusree Mukerjee
The author works hard to satisfy our curiosity. As hopeless as it might seem, who can ever resist the chance to peek around the corner? Randers gathers short essays from 34 colleagues and scientists, and he sprinkles them through the chapters of the book. They provide variegated and provocative glimpses into the future. After each entry, Randers tells how well the opinions fit his own forecast and views. There is certainly plenty here to mull over.
Source: Crosslands Bulletin on Business, Law and Environment on May 30, 2012 (This link was dead on May 19, 2019)
In this follow-up book, 2052: A global forecast for the next 40 years Randers makes predictions based on current data, simpler calculations and a lifetime’s experience analysing global systems. Interestingly – and plausibly – he doesn’t anticipate global apocalypse, but instead a slow, sad decline, in which pockets of collapse and misery develop while business largely as usual carries on around them. Overall he sees a poorer, less democratic world as resources run out and more must be spent simply to keep overstretched systems running – echoes of other theorists of collapse such as Joseph Tainter.
Source: New Scientist on May 31, 2012 by Deborah Mackenzie (The link is dead as of May 19, 2019)
So, in this report to the Club of Rome on the 40th anniversary of The Limits to Growth, Randers attempts to forecast what the next 40 years are likely to bring. Yes, this is a forecast, unlike the scenarios of the original Limits to Growth study. Randers goes out on a limb to actually offer a picture of what he thinks our future holds. He readily admits this is dangerous territory, but bravely shares his educated guesses. He explains how our lives will be affected by five central issues: capitalism, economic growth, democracy, intergenerational equity, and climate. Read more
Source: Growthbusters on June 13, 2012 by Dave Gardner
“It provides an extraordinarily comprehensive survey of every aspect of sustainable development – economic, social, environmental and political – that you can imagine. It’s particularly strong on the economic stuff, as befits a systems modeller and life-long commentator on what he (still) sees as an all but irreconcilable disconnect between the overall shape and astonishing dynamism of consumer-driven capitalism, and the need to create wealth and improve human wellbeing within the Earth’s bio-physical limits.” Read more
Jonathan Porritt, September 2012
The report presents a gloomy picture of various aspects of human civilization in 2052 if decisive, unanimous and full-scale worldwide action involving all nations is not taken, and thus constitutes a more serious warning to the world than The Limits to Growth. First, it predicts that the global population will peak at 8.1 billion people just after 2040 and then decline due to a dramatic fall in fertility among an increasingly urbanized population.
Source: Japan Spotlight, October 2012 by Naoyuki Haraoka (The link is dead on May 19, 2019)
“This 40-year forecast is very useful and highly provocative. It is particularly useful for pointing to the necessary rise of social investment in response to global warming that will displace some consumption. The 21 pieces of advice for individuals and organizations are especially thought-provoking. A close reading is strongly advised for anyone concerned about world futures and the turbulent decades ahead, although everyone will surely find some points of disagreement.” Read more
Michael Marien, October 6, 2012
2052 is a bold declaration on the likely state of the world one generation from now, by veteran trend-tracker and future-modeller Jørgen Randers. In this book, almost uniquely, a highly respected scientist has nailed his colours to the mast and said not what should happen, or what he would like to happen, or even what might happen, but rather what he thinks will happen – in our lifetimes. The book picks up where the controversial series of Limits to Growth reports for the Club of Rome left off.
Source: CSR International on October 31, 2012 by Wayne Wisser (The link is dead as of May 19, 2019)
“While this book is written for an informed lay audience, it brings together a comprehensive compendium of data and opinion that can challenge advanced students and scholars. This book is ideal because it can be read on so many levels ranging from informed citizen to global climate-change expert. Randers is an internationally acclaimed author and this book is another linguistically clear and superior example of why he has attained this international reputation.” Read more
David Andersen, November 5, 2012
“2052”, ritorno al (grigio) futuro
Un nuovo meditato scenario di Jørgen Randers sul futuro che ci aspetta se i decisori non decidono e prevale l’inerzia. Mentre l’IPCC analizza, commenta e riassume tutte le posizioni espresse su riviste scientifiche e assimilabili, necessariamente giungendo a posizioni intermedie di consenso, singoli esperti, basandosi sulla loro storia, possono proporre scenari che ritengono a loro avviso i più probabili. Read more
Source: Climalteranti.it on October 14, 2013 by Valentino Piana